Those that know me know that today is my Super Bowl, and that starting at 6, I'll be camped out on the couch and live blogging from 39 Winnecowett Drive (didn't feel like driving back to Somerville after driving back from CT today). I'll also be live blogging. There are quite a few locked down categories, and a few too close to call, most notably Best Picture. I'll start with the sure-thing winners and then move on to the less certain...
LOCKS (or pretty close to it)
Actor in a Leading Role
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Geroge Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Actor in a Supporting Role
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
Actress in a Supporting Role
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Directing
James Cameron, Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds
Lee Daniels, Precious: based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
District 9 - Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
An Education -Nick Hornby
In the Loop - Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire - Geoffrey Fletcher
Up in the Air - Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
Animated Feature
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up
Feature Documentary
Burma VJ
The Cove
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home
Art Direction
Avatar
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria
Visual Effects
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
Original Score
Avatar - James Horner
Fantastic Mr. Fox - Alexandre Desplat
The Hurt Locker - Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
Sherlock Holmes - Hans Zimmer
Up - Michael Giacchino
Original Song
"Almost There" - The Princess and the Frog
"Down in New Orleans" - The Princess and the Frog
"Loin de Paname" - Paris 36
"Take It All" - Nine
"The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)" - Crazy Heart
Actress in a Leading Role
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
It's either Sandra or Meryl, and I think Sandra will take it - she has the momentum now. Meryl will have to be content with her 2 Oscars and 16 (yes, 16) nominations.
Cinematography
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon
I wont be surprised if any of them (except Harry Potter) win - Basterds and Ribbon are dark horses
Costume Design
Bright Star
Coco Avant Chanel
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria
Young Victoria could upset, but I heard the Chanel recreations were immaculate
Editing
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Avatar could upset here, but editing gave THL a lot of its suspense
Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria
Sound Mixing
Avatar
Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Sound Editing
Avatar
Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up
Both of these categories are tough to call, because they usually go hand and hand. A double win for Avatar or The Hurt Locker wouldn't be a major surprise, nor would a split. I'm gonna go with the split, overall sound going to The Hurt Locker and specific sounds to Avatar.
Foreign Language Film
Ajami (Israel)
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
Un Prophete (France)
El Secreto de Sus Ojos (Argentina)
The White Ribbon (Germany)
I've seen 3 of the 5 (Ajami, Un Prophete and The White Ribbon) and Un Prophete stayed with me the most. It won the Grand Prix (runner up) prize in Cannes last May - the winner of the Palm d'Or? The White Ribbon. Academy members must see all 5 in order to vote. The buzz is they'll go with something more audience friendly (The Milk of Sorrow), but I'd be surprised if they're not stunned by Un Prophete.
Too Close to Call
Writing (Original Screenplay)
The Hurt Locker - Mark Boal
Inglourious Basterds - Quentin Tarantino
The Messenger - Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
A Serious Man - Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Up - Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy
Hurt Locker and Basterds have split precursors, with Hurt Locker winning the WGA and BAFTA. Basterds was brilliantly written by Tarantino, but I suspect Basterds will be thrown a bone with Christoph Waltz's win. I'm going to go with The Hurt Locker, but won't be surprised by a Basterds win.
Best Picture
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Really, this is a 3 film race, Avatar, Hurt Locker and Basterds. Towards the end of February, it seemed like it was The Hurt Locker was in it to win it, sweeping almost all of the critics and guild awards (2 misses, Golden Globes - Avatar, SAG - Basterds). Then there was some major backlash the past week, including a Hurt Locker producer sending an e-mail asking Academy members to vote for his film (a blatant rule violation), and war vets disputing its accuracy. I think though, most ballots had been turned in by that point. I think that The Hurt Locker has pretty broad support (based on it's guild wins), where as Avatar was pretty much visually stunning (the script was terrible) and Basterds is an actors piece. I'm going to go with The Hurt Locker, but I also really enjoyed Avatar and Basterds, so I won't be terribly unhappy if any of them win. The Hurt Locker is my #1 film of the year regardless of tonight's results.
What are your thoughts? Check back starting around 7 for live blogging!
No comments:
Post a Comment